While I really do not want to divulge a lot of information here I will say that I have a database that goes back to the 1999 strike shortened season. The thing that separates my database from the database of most is that I have my own power ratings for each team in each game. Why is this important? One, I am able to make accurate projections on what a line should be. Two, I am able to analyze situations with the aid of knowing what the line should have been. Three, I am not dependent on a third party to win. The great thing about the NBA is similar situations repeat themselves again and again and again….season after season.

The database gives me the ability to look through years of data, samples of hundreds of games and really dissect when teams perform well, when they may perform poorly, the mathematical relationship (power rating wise)  between teams (thus estimating the true correct line) and the ability to research angles in relationship to the line. In addition the old adage of practice makes perfect really comes into play with NBA Capping. Throughout the seasons I have faced thousands of subjective reads on teams. A lot of times the difference between a strong play, a weak play and no play at all is how I read a team’s current form. Years of making these decision has made me quite adept at making these discernments. I am not trying to sound arrogant, but there are times I amaze myself at some of my reads.

I am not going to provide further details than that. Let’s just say I have the ability to win and win consistently. As the games go by and the seasons go by you should see my results mimic the projections you will read about later. If I fall short it will not be by much and my results should be winning season after winning season.

I am not going to pretend that winning is easy and has always been easy.

Over the years of doing this I have learned a tremendous amount. There have been periods (before I had learned enough) where I felt like I was just beating my head against the wall. There are so many factors and angles that need to be scrutinized. I consider NBA capping a big jigsaw puzzle and until you have enough of the pieces in place you really aren’t going anywhere.  It has taken me many years to put all of these pieces in place and at this point it is no longer a question of whether I will have a winning season or a losing season but at this point it is a question of how much I will win. .

So the bottom line is as follows. I know what the lines should be, I know when teams should perform well and I know when teams should perform poorly. Not because I have supernatural powers, but because I have spent many years developing my skills at this. With the aid of my database, I am able to really zero in on what works and doesn’t. I am constantly refining and polishing my approach as my goal is to get better at this each and every year.

Over the years I have worked my game into quite a high volume approach. Currently I expect to have plays on over 350 games each season. Some seasons will have more than others. A lot has to do with the overall quality of the league. The ideal situation would be a league where every team was at least decent and no team was decimated by injuries all season long. The more teams that are non competitive the less plays I will have. Now you are probably saying to yourself that 350 plays is a huge volume of plays and may think that I cannot show a profit on such a large quantity. It is my goal to prove to you otherwise.  

Now a key point is that not all plays are equal. Some plays are very strong while other plays are much weaker. There is a lot of controversy in the sports betting world about whether cappers should distinguish between plays. I can tell you without any doubt or hesitation that I know the difference between a strong play and a weak play. Basically I rate each play based on strength. The stronger the play the more I advise you wager on the game. There are exceptions of course, but I think you will notice over time that my stronger plays will generally cover the spread comfortably while there will be a tendency for my weaker plays to come down to the last few minutes or even seconds of the game.

My approach is 5 tiered. Plays will be rated as follows:

Obviously I cannot answer that question for you. Ultimately you have to decide

1-     Can this service meet the projections above (time will answer that question)

2-     Is your bankroll big enough that if you do make 30% of it over the course of the season, you will be completely satisfied with you investment (cost of the service + the time involved in making your wagers).

3-      Do you have the control, patience and discipline to keep plugging away as prescribed no matter how good, bad or mediocre things are going.

It is really that simple. If you answer yes to all 3 questions then yes this service is right for you.

Let's get real here. You don’t. This is the real world. A minefield of scams everywhere you go. The bottom line is there is nothing that I can say that should make you trust me. What I will tell you is that I am as honest as can be and have been winning consistently for many years. That is the absolute truth. But for you to believe that would be naive. The only way I am going to gain your trust is by performing. However let me give you a little food for thought. If I was really out to scam you the approach I am using for this web site is the absolute worst approach I can use.  As you read on further, you will realize that the only way for this service to be even remotely successful is for me to perform. I am exposing too much to hide anything from you. I  designed this service that way  because I have no doubt that the numbers I put up season after season are going to meet my projections above and when they do I want the regulars here to trust them and sign up. That being said I realize there will always be a ton of skepticism. For that reason my picks are being tracked at trackpicks.com. I am basically doing everything I can to give you the consumer the following:

1)  A clear picture of what to expect.

2) Clear instruction on  how to invest.

3) A clear display of my record and profits.

4) Independent verification of my results.

Typically I post my plays at around 1 pm pacific time each day ...the exception will be when I have morning games the following day. I will post using widely available lines.

Well as a rule you want to get the number I release a game at or better. In the real world, that just may not happen every day. Lines are very important and getting a bad line on a regular basis will eat away a huge chunk of your profits. To make things very clear, on each game I will have a comment. Something like Toronto -4 for 3 units, play for 2 units if -4.5 and 1 unit at -5, pass above that. On each game I will give very precise instructions on what you should do. Please do not cheat in this area because the only one you will be cheating is yourself.

I make my projections using educated guesses as to who is playing and isn’t playing. I have no inside information. Some injuries mean more than others. Many are overrated anyhow. This is part of the game and there will be times that you have a play on a team only to find that there is a late scratch of their star player. It happens. Not often but it does happen. There is not much you can do but hope that the play wins anyhow (or gets a big halftime lead enabling you to play the other side at halftime protecting you from a loss and providing and opportunity for a nice middle score). Just as often (we hope) we will be the beneficiary of the late lineup change so in the long run all will equal itself out. Also there is a strange tendency in the NBA for a team to lose their star player and play out of its mind, so strangely enough some of these games actually cover at a line much worse than closing line. Now the play is an official play no matter what and will show up on the record win or lose. However, if you are fortunate enough to not have a play on the game when the injury is announced, by all means skip it. There are hundreds of other plays during the season. Also remember that at 350 + plays a season the 2 or 3 games that get destroyed with a key late injury and lose are not going to make a huge dent in the bankroll anyhow.

Typically I have always played sides and that is my bread and butter. I do however have a large database and one of the fun things about having a database is to play around with it and discover angles. Now in totals there is not a lot to find, but I have been able to datamine an angle which has put up quite impressive results over a very large sample. While I believe they will perform quite well in the future the realist in me needs to see some future results before I get too excited. At this point in time I can only advise you play these totals for 1 % of bankroll.  I should have in the neighborhood of 50 -100 of these plays each season.

My strategy typically is to buy back for 50% (I usually lay the 50% not 55% to win 50%) of my bet on a 2 point line move. I only use this strategy when the line movement is a correction of a weak line and not a reaction to a late injury. For instance if I bet Houston -4 at home against the Lakers and the line moved to -6 I would play 50% of my bet amount on the Lakers +6. Now if the line movement was due to Kobe Bryant being a late scratch I would not bother. I will not buy back the other side at any less than 2 points better. Also I am more reluctant to do so on shorter lines. If I play New Orleans at a pick and they drift to -2, no way I buy back the other side. As a rule your buy back side should be getting at least 4 points. Also this is a very personal choice. This is my personal strategy and I have done well with it and I have learned to live with the consequences when my original team goes on to win and easily cover the number. That doesn't mean you have to use it yourself. You will do just fine sticking with the original play. Also please note that buy backs are not included in my record keeping. If I say play New Orleans at -2 they drift up to -5 my only record on the game will be a play on New Orleans -2. By the way on totals I generally will require a 4 point line move before buying back the other side for 50%.

No. This is a competitive game and educating others is not in my best interest.

I am here to stay. I know what I am capable of over large samples and I am not going the let a poor season discourage me.  I know ultimately whatever my long term results are they will be plenty attractive enough to attract some clientele. I do all the work anyhow, so there is no extra effort in posting the plays on my site. I will be posting plays for many years to come. The biggest concern I have is that my plays may attract too much action and thus make it hard for my clients to achieve the number I post the game at. I will address that problem when I come to it.

Reluctantly the answer is yes. I honestly do not think it is in your best interest to buy my picks on a short term basis, but if that is what you want why should I try to tell you what to do. The reason why it is not in your best interest is that daily samples, weekly samples and even monthly samples do not tell you enough about what I am capable of doing. I am a grinder, grinding out steady profits season after season. Ideally 30% profit on bankroll would come at a steady 5 % each and every month for 6 months, but the reality is that it doesn’t. Some seasons +30% may be +60% for 3 months and -30% the next 3 months. Other seasons might be -15% for 2 months +45% for 2 month and even for the next two months. There is no rhyme or reason to when I will win. I just know that over a nice sample of games (such as the 400 or so games over the course of the season) my service should grind out about 30% of bankroll in profits. Even that will vary season to season. Maybe some seasons I will only show a profit of 15% or 20 % while other seasons will show a 50% or 60% profit.

Yes, I will me monitoring my picks at trackpicks.com. For the record I will be entering picks at trackpicks as follows: I will enter 1 unit plays as 1 unit, 1.5 unit plays as 2 units, 2 unit plays as 3 units, 3 unit plays as 4 unit and 4 unit plays as 5 unit. The reason is that they have a 1 to 5 unit approach there and I have a 5 tiered approach, so this seems to be the most logical approach to use.

If you are not comfortable making over 300 plays a season or if you consider yourself a very risk averse investor, you can ignore 1 unit plays, both sides and totals(all totals are 1 unit plays). They are going to make up around 200 of the plays I give out and they are likely not going to be a very big part of the profit anyhow. Let's say I give out 200 plays and they hit 54% that would be 108-92 or 6.9% of your bankroll in profit. However that is about ideal, and there is a good possibility that they may only hit 53% 106-94 or 2.7% of bankroll in profit. Also if there is going to be a subset of plays that loses over a significant sample it will likely be in this area. Now I am not saying that I advise clients to not make these plays. I make them myself, I believe they will be profitable (somewhere in between the 2 examples I gave) and I advise clients to also make them. That being said, you have to be comfortable and if making the weaker plays takes you out of your comfort zone, then skip them.